The Key to a Successful Marketing Mix Model
To measure your offline campaigns or impression data.
Marketing mix modelling (MMM) calculates the impact of marketing campaigns. Aside from helping you understand the effect of general campaigns, you can use the marketing mix model to measure the effects of pricing, promotions and events such as product launches. Getting this holistic view is one of the main advantages of MMM. We use MMM in combination with multi-touch attribution (MTA) to attribute value to on- and offline media channels.
The MTA model provides the more detailed, necessary insights into customer journeys within specific channels and campaigns. This is a more granular approach than the general, channel-level MMM. The MTA model falls short for offline channels such as television or radio advertising, as most of this data is not available at an individual level. MMM plays an important role in determining the impact of these channels, and herein lies its continued relevance.
At Objective Partners, we specialize in MMM. Our custom model runs in our software solution, Objective Platform. This blog will discuss when to use MMM, how to set up a good marketing mix model and how to combine the results with those of the MTA model to carry out unified modelling.
When do I use marketing mix modelling?
At a time where conversion attribution is finding its way into many marketing departments, you might find yourself asking why you still need the channel-level MMM. For many channels, MTA is indeed a great technique to study the marketing effects on an detailed, path-based, level. However, you can’t include offline channels in these paths. There is no way to tell whether someone saw your television advertisement or heard your radio campaign. This offline data is aggregated. You can’t track it on an individual basis and therefore can’t include it in the MTA model.
MMM can fill this gap. MMM incorporates media investments that can only be measured on an aggregated basis, thus allowing the comparison of all media investments and presenting you with a holistic view of all your marketing activities. The comparison of the upper and lower images below illustrates that a television commercial can induce new touchpoints in existing customer paths, start new paths and increase a path’s chance of conversion. The images below also show not all customer paths are affected by the television commercial, as not every individual has necessarily seen it. MMM can be used to quantify the aggregate effect of the commercial.
How do I set up a good marketing mix model?
- Make sure you have good-quality data available. MMM is also most effective when using a large dataset. You need a minimum of two or three years’ worth of data for solid results.
- Select which KPI you want to measure. This could include website visits, attributed conversions or attributed revenue as measured by MTA, for example.
- You also need to set up your independent variables, consisting of the variables that affect the selected KPI. Imagine your selected KPI is the number of website visits per day. Have you ever thought about how the weather affects the search behaviour of your customers? Or how a salary payment might trigger a sale? These contextual factors that can influence your KPI need to be included in the marketing mix model. Additionally, a good marketing mix model needs to capture changes in the market. Events such as sale periods, competitor advertising, and website failures also need to be modelled. Including your offline media (television, radio and out of home) completes the model.
- For this last set of data it is particularly important to use the right modelling techniques. Taking into account the advertising adstock model is key to a good marketing mix model. A consumer will partially remember a commercial they see today tomorrow and the day after that. Over time the knowledge of the commercial fades completely. If a company broadcasts many commercials during a given flight, the knowledge stocks up and stays in consumers’ minds for a longer period of time.
How can I combine the outcomes in the MTA model?
Now that you know the effects radio and television campaigns have, they can be included in your granular attribution. On one hand, the outcomes of your MTA model show you how one conversion should be attributed over various online conversion paths. On the other hand, the outcomes of your marketing mix model show the additional conversions, revenue or website visits your aggregated offline media channels caused. The challenge you now face is to re-attribute some conversions that you initially attributed using MTA in order to combine the information given by the two models. The conversions are re-attributed proportionally to the impact each channel has. Consider the following simple example of conversions related to a television campaign:
Imagine you first ran the MTA model, which attributed 50 conversions to the paid search channel. The output of your marketing mix model subsequently shows that 10 of these paid search conversions are a result of your television campaign. In this case, MMM re-attributes one fifth of the paid search conversions to TV. MMM re-attributes all channels; the sum of these re-attributed conversions yielding the total effect of your television campaign.
The figure above illustrates this process. The conversions are attributed by MTA and form the KPI for the marketing mix model. The yellow bars show the gross rating points (GRPs) of TV. The marketing mix model attributes a certain amount of conversions to TV, as shown in dark blue. These conversions were previously all attributed to the online paid search channel using MTA. The marketing mix model now partly re-attributes them to TV advertising. Following the example above, one fifth of the €25, €5, goes to television:
The biggest added value of MMM is that it enables you to measure the impact of channels MTA can’t include. Combining the results of MMM with the attributed conversions of MTA gives a complete overview of all media investments. Once you’ve combined the results of both models, you’re able to compare the effectiveness of media spend across channels. Aside from this holistic marketing view, MMM can give you insights into the impact of events. These include sale periods and product launches. A good marketing mix model is therefore crucial to measuring the effectiveness of campaigns and allows for an accurate comparison across all channels.