Why Standard Media Attribution does not work for Lotteries
Media attribution for lotteries.
Determination of the optimal media spend is often complicated by a great number of factors of influence. For draw-based games, business dynamics heavily influence the result of any investments in media, to the extent that models such as regular multi-touch attribution (MTA) do not produce accurate output. The most important business dynamics are the size of the jackpot and the number of days left before the draw.
The display channel, for example, can be extremely effective when the jackpot is high, but not effective at all for lower amounts. Similarly, more people tend to buy a lottery ticket on impulse directly after seeing a banner a few days before the draw compared to a draw that is weeks away. Using this input to model optimal media spend for the coming period would not make sense.
It is, however, possible for us to quantify these two business dynamics and incorporate them in our MTA model to determine optimal media spend.
What do we Offer?
You receive insights visualized clearly in one place, Objective Platform. We begin by gaining insights into the attributed value of each touchpoint. Per customer journey, we calculate the value each touchpoint contributed to a conversion to provide you with the value per channel per period.
We then add the cost of each channel to the dashboard and combine the cost data with the attributed value per touchpoint and compare the effectiveness of investments per channel. We also incorporate business dynamics such as the effect of the jackpot and the number of days left until the draw.
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How do you Benefit?
Using Objective Platform, you can determine the value of each channel at any point in time before the draw and calculate and predict the optimal allocation of the media budget on a daily or weekly basis taking into account all relevant business dynamics. This results in:
- Accounting for the factors that influence the effectiveness of investments such as the height of the jackpot and number of days before a draw.
- More efficient investments in the available channels. You know exactly how much value each channel delivers at a given time. This enables you to invest more in valuable channels and less in channels that do not deliver in the days leading up to the draw, preventing you from wasting budget.
- Knowing which channels are important at every stage in the customer journey so you can invest in channels that initiate new customer journeys.
- Increased returns on the same or even on a lower budget.
Media Attribution for Nederlandse Loterij
We implemented Objective Platform for the Nederlandse Loterij, the company behind seven big games of chance in the Netherlands. Nederlandse Loterij wanted more insights into the media investments for standalone ticket sales of their biggest game, the Staatsloterij (state lottery). This lottery consists of monthly draws and four additional draws. They wanted to know how to split their budget over various online channels for optimal results. Using Objective Platform, they achieved:
- Lower expenditures per channel at a given jackpot size due to more efficient spend.
- Less waste of budget.
- Significant increase in revenue under the same business dynamics.
- A budget per channel per week, allowing for optimal media investments for every single draw.
The first step is mapping out all customer journeys and determining the value of each touchpoint in the customer journeys. We do this using our MTA model. This is the only model that assigns value to touchpoints in the customer journey according to its actual contribution to the conversion. We then add the size of the jackpot and number of days before the draw to the MTA model to calculate investment elasticities. The size of the jackpot, for example, makes an enormous difference to the attractiveness of the lottery’s proposition and its effect should not be ignored.
By adding cost data and business dynamics to the model, we are able to calculate the attributed revenue and marginal return on investment (ROI) for each channel, accounting for the jackpot size or days before the draw. This can be done per draw, which is more effective than looking at the data on a monthly basis. As a result, the Staatsloterij knows exactly what to spend on which channels leading up to the draw.